Post by Admin on Aug 28, 2019 15:44:49 GMT -4
Dorian Now a Hurricane Moving Through the U.S. Virgin Islands; Hurricane Threat Grows For Southeast U.S.
Hurricane Dorian Impacting Virgin Islands and Headed Toward Southeast U.S
Dorian's center is now moving over St. Thomas, in the U.S. Virgin Islands with wind gusts over 90 mph.
An elevated station just south of St. Thomas recently reported a sustained wind of 82 mph and a gust of 111 mph.
(The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the brightest red colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone.)
Heavy rain is now lashing St. Croix, St. John, St. Thomas and the British Virgin Islands. Outer rainbands are already pushing into Puerto Rico, according to NWS Doppler radar from San Juan.
(Severe, tornado, flash flood alerts are also plotted, according to the legend, when issued by the National Weather Service.)
A hurricane warning has been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as the islands of Vieques and Culebra. This means hurricane conditions (74 mph or greater winds) are expected with the passage of Dorian.
A hurricane watch remains in effect for Puerto Rico, meaning those conditions are possible with the passage of Dorian.
A tropical storm warning is also in effect for Puerto Rico, meaning tropical storm conditions (39-73 mph winds) are expected there.
Dorian's center will sweep across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Wednesday, then move northwest of the islands by Thursday.
(MAS: Dorian en Español)
Some additional strengthening is possible before Dorian interacts with land, and Dorian could become a hurricane while moving through the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Regardless of that, flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rain will be a significant threat, particularly in mountainous terrain where trees may have been downed from 2017's Hurricane Maria.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches (locally up to 10 inches) are currently forecast in eastern Puerto Rico into the Virgin Islands, with lighter amounts expected in western Puerto Rico and on Hispaniola. While the heaviest rain is expected Wednesday, some trailing rainbands may linger over parts of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola into Thursday.
Tropical storm-force winds will overspread Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and hurricane-force winds are possible in the Virgin Islands, particularly at higher elevations. Some power outages and tree damage could occur.
Dangerous surf and swells will occur, particularly along south and east-facing shores
Bahamas, Southeast U.S. Forecast
For now, Dorian's center is expected to track to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas, but that is subject to change.
Dorian is then expected to bend toward the west-northwest by Friday or Saturday.
Exactly when and how sharp that leftward bend occurs will be critical in determining where Dorian strikes the southeast US
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)
The latest National Hurricane Center forecast has Dorian threatening the northwest Bahamas early this weekend, then parts of Florida, Georgia, perhaps the Carolinas later in the Labor Day holiday weekend.
"However, there has been considerable run-to-run variability among the models, so confidence in the long-term track remains low," the NHC said in a forecast discussion early Wednesday.
Among the myriad track possibilities are a track farther north along the Southeast coast or one slicing across the Florida Peninsula, then emerging into the Gulf of Mexico.
Furthermore, it is increasingly likely Dorian will both intensify and grow in size as it moves toward the Southeast U.S.
Dorian will likely be a formidably strong hurricane by that time.
All interests in the Bahamas, the northern Gulf Coast, Florida and the Southeast coast from Georgia to the Carolinas should have their hurricane plans ready and monitor the forecast of Dorian closely.
Hurricane Dorian Impacting Virgin Islands and Headed Toward Southeast U.S
Dorian's center is now moving over St. Thomas, in the U.S. Virgin Islands with wind gusts over 90 mph.
An elevated station just south of St. Thomas recently reported a sustained wind of 82 mph and a gust of 111 mph.
(The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the brightest red colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone.)
Heavy rain is now lashing St. Croix, St. John, St. Thomas and the British Virgin Islands. Outer rainbands are already pushing into Puerto Rico, according to NWS Doppler radar from San Juan.
(Severe, tornado, flash flood alerts are also plotted, according to the legend, when issued by the National Weather Service.)
A hurricane warning has been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as the islands of Vieques and Culebra. This means hurricane conditions (74 mph or greater winds) are expected with the passage of Dorian.
A hurricane watch remains in effect for Puerto Rico, meaning those conditions are possible with the passage of Dorian.
A tropical storm warning is also in effect for Puerto Rico, meaning tropical storm conditions (39-73 mph winds) are expected there.
Dorian's center will sweep across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Wednesday, then move northwest of the islands by Thursday.
(MAS: Dorian en Español)
Some additional strengthening is possible before Dorian interacts with land, and Dorian could become a hurricane while moving through the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Regardless of that, flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rain will be a significant threat, particularly in mountainous terrain where trees may have been downed from 2017's Hurricane Maria.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches (locally up to 10 inches) are currently forecast in eastern Puerto Rico into the Virgin Islands, with lighter amounts expected in western Puerto Rico and on Hispaniola. While the heaviest rain is expected Wednesday, some trailing rainbands may linger over parts of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola into Thursday.
Tropical storm-force winds will overspread Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and hurricane-force winds are possible in the Virgin Islands, particularly at higher elevations. Some power outages and tree damage could occur.
Dangerous surf and swells will occur, particularly along south and east-facing shores
Bahamas, Southeast U.S. Forecast
For now, Dorian's center is expected to track to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas, but that is subject to change.
Dorian is then expected to bend toward the west-northwest by Friday or Saturday.
Exactly when and how sharp that leftward bend occurs will be critical in determining where Dorian strikes the southeast US
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)
The latest National Hurricane Center forecast has Dorian threatening the northwest Bahamas early this weekend, then parts of Florida, Georgia, perhaps the Carolinas later in the Labor Day holiday weekend.
"However, there has been considerable run-to-run variability among the models, so confidence in the long-term track remains low," the NHC said in a forecast discussion early Wednesday.
Among the myriad track possibilities are a track farther north along the Southeast coast or one slicing across the Florida Peninsula, then emerging into the Gulf of Mexico.
Furthermore, it is increasingly likely Dorian will both intensify and grow in size as it moves toward the Southeast U.S.
Dorian will likely be a formidably strong hurricane by that time.
All interests in the Bahamas, the northern Gulf Coast, Florida and the Southeast coast from Georgia to the Carolinas should have their hurricane plans ready and monitor the forecast of Dorian closely.